Boston’s real estate market is booming. This spring, sale prices for condominiums and single-family homes in the city reached all-time highs while its median rent is among the highest in the country.

Unsurprisingly, both long-time and would-be residents are being priced out of the city. As a result, some affected parties are already pushing for the reintroduction of rent control — Massachusetts outlawed this policy statewide in 1994, but the housing crisis has encouraged revisiting this practice.

But is rent control the solution to the current housing shortage in Boston?

Boston’s Housing Market Is Struggling to Keep Up With Growing Demand

According to a study released by the National Low Income Housing Coalition, the typical Massachusetts renter would need to earn $33.81 per hour to be able to afford a 2-bedroom apartment. Meanwhile, the average renter’s hourly wage stands at $20.72.

This disparity shows that Massachusetts, especially Boston, is facing an undeniable shortage of affordable housing, with many residents being priced out of the market. A controversial study estimates that 43 evictions take place daily in Massachusetts. Although this number seems grossly inflated, affordability remains a concern for the state’s current and potential inhabitants. Homelessness is on the rise statewide, partly due to the increase in housing prices.

Interestingly, this scarcity of affordable housing hasn’t deterred new residents from flooding Massachusetts’s real estate industry. The State is currently struggling to keep pace with the intense demand for new apartments, with Boston pulling in more people than it can accommodate. That’s because the city has a dynamic job market and also attracts a large number of students, many of whom want to remain after graduating, contributing to the escalating rent. Besides, some blame the growth of the “internet-based service firms” (IBSFs), like Airbnb, for the surge in rent prices and unit shortage.

The Boston City Council will be up for election in November 2019. A result of the housing shortage, expected rent hikes have provoked increasing unrest among residents, and there is a passionate debate over reinstating rent control.

Despite being voted out by a statewide ballot initiative in 2004, rent control was a popular measure in the places where it was enforced: Boston, Cambridge, and Brookline. Gentrification is now reaching into former working-class neighborhoods like the South End and Jamaica Plains. A bill proposing restrictions on the eviction of seniors without just cause is already underway.

Alternative Solutions to Rent Control

Rent control is not a straightforward solution. Its opponents recall many of the issues that lead to its elimination 25 years ago. Without the incentive to maintain their property, landlords would defer maintenance indefinitely. Not only would buildings themselves decrease in value, but entire neighborhoods could suffer from neglect.

Due to the perceived limited return on investment, builders would shy away from constructing new multi-family buildings. Additionally, tenants would hold on to their units to keep the favorable rates, further reducing the number of apartments available to newcomers.

Thankfully, after years of unbridled growth, Boston’s real estate market is showing signs of regulating itself. Listing numbers are increasing, and the property prices are now growing at a much slower pace. Foreign investments, one of the driving forces behind Boston’s real estate market explosion, have also stagnated.

Apart from market self-regulation, there are alternatives to rent control to make housing more affordable. Investments in the transit system could improve Boston’s dreaded commute, attracting residents further out of the city. Relaxing the notoriously tight building regulations would also be an incentive for investors to create more affordable housing rather than focusing on high-end units. Finally, urban residents are changing their lifestyle and switching from single-family homes to the less expensive micro-units and co-living.

Market Self Regulation

Boston’s real estate market is finally showing evidence of auto-regulation, so rent control and its associated issues are not an end-all solution. On its own, rent control can’t solve a problem as complex as housing affordability, and it’s worth taking the time to explore other options.

What’s your take on rent control?

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Since 2015, legislative officials of Boston have been developing legislation concerning residential evictions in the city. Even though that legislation has failed to advance in the Massachusetts legislature, its proponents continue to work on a revised version for 2019. Residential real estate values are likely to be affected whether or not the bill is ultimately enacted into law.

Boston Apartment Market Background

Boston’s soaring real estate market has increased the demand for affordable residential units and reduced their supply. The average apartment rental rate in the Greater Boston area rose from $1,752 in 2015 to $2,152 in 2018. While apartment construction is increasing, much of that new supply is aimed at prosperous young professionals. Developers are buying up older housing stock, in anticipation of redevelopment. Consequently, tenants in those older buildings have limited options, with their rents rising sharply until the buildings are demolished for reuse.

In 1994, a coalition of Cambridge landlords led a successful referendum to have rent control banned in Massachusetts. The landlords claimed that existing rent control suppressed new multi-family residential construction; 51% of the state’s voters agreed with them. This belief was vindicated by following years’ construction: from 1998 to 2001, 2,569 multi-family residential permits were granted in Boston compared with 420 from 1991 to 1994.

Eviction Legislation History

The growing loss of affordable housing in 2015 caused Boston neighborhood activists to press for legislation to extend renters’ rights. A proposed ordinance would require landlords to report tracking evictions, only evict tenants for a few specified reasons, and engage in non-binding mediation with tenants for any rental increment beyond 5 percent. No city councilor would sponsor the legislation, primarily because it appeared to reinstate rent control.

The housing reform bill was again proposed in 2016. Supporters of the legislation dropped the mediation requirement from the 2015 proposal. Boston landlords continued to oppose the legislation; they claimed the reasons for their objection were the costs of reporting and the possibility of being targeted by advocacy groups when reported evictions were made public. Once again, this proposal did not advance.

In 2017, another rental reform package was proposed. Part of that package was the ‘Jim Brooks Community Stabilization Act,’ named after a late Boston social justice advocate. The act would require landlords to report evictions, but it would prevent those data from becoming public. City officials could then present soon-to-be-evicted tenants with legal and relocation aid. But the act did still include a list of specific reasons—or ‘good causes’—under which landlords could begin eviction proceedings. Subsequently, public hearings were held by the Boston City Council Committee on Community Relations. After the proposed act was strongly opposed by both landlords and some tenants, it was referred back to committee.

An amended version of the act was passed by the Boston City Council in October 2017. Most of the provisions of the 2015 proposed act were gone. The approved act only requires landlords to notify the city of evictions and allows the city to inform tenants of the tenants’ eviction rights.

Because Boston is a home rule state, the act was presented to the Massachusetts legislature in January 2018. The bill was sent to study in May 2018, thus, effectively killing it. Legislators rejected the act because, as presented, they weren’t allowed to amend it. Also, they were aware that landlords and real estate developers viewed the bill as the first step into reenacting rent control.

2019 Proposals on Boston Tenant Rights

Boston Mayor Martin Walsh released his current agenda for the Massachusetts legislature on January 7, 2019. His list includes three proposed acts to help residential tenants facing eviction. The first act would provide certain low-income tenants facing eviction with court-appointed attorneys.

The second act, focused on Boston’s elderly population, resembles the 2015 proposed tenant protection legislation. It would prohibit ‘no-fault’ eviction of anyone over 75. Landlords would be required to provide notice to the local community at the same time the eviction notice is served to the elderly tenant. Eviction would only be permitted for good cause such as failure to pay rent, damage to the property, or use of the premises for illegal activities. Rent increases would be limited to five percent per year for tenants aged 75 or older to prevent landlords from using large rent increases to get around just cause protections. This would apply to all properties with six or more rental units.’

The third act would give tenant associations of multi-family residences larger than five units the right of first refusal to purchase those residences at fair market value. This would provide tenants with the ability to match any bona fide offers on buildings including their apartments.

Effects on Residential Rental Property Market

All three of the proposed acts are currently in committee; their eventual disposition is uncertain. In the short term, that uncertainty could cause Boston’s residential real estate investors to hold off any purchases until the legislative issues are clearer.

If the bills behind these proposed acts become available for comment, there is likely to be heated public reaction. Landlords and real estate investors will undoubtedly object to the public release of eviction notices, the effective brake on rental rates, and a list limiting just causes for evictions. All of these would increase management and ownership expenses. The five-percent rent raise limit would reduce potential gross income and suppress new investment. Current and potential investors in Boston’s multi-family residential market should stay alert to news about these and other proposed legislation. Trade organizations and well-informed sales professionals will be especially helpful in keeping investors up to date on legislative actions regarding this bill.

The post Boston’s Proposed Just Cause Eviction Legislation: Facts and Effects appeared first on Boston Appraisal Services.

The demand for all types of real estate in New England reflects region-wide economic factors. While the national economy influences geographical real estate values, some 2019 trends unique to New England are especially important to buyers and investors. These trends include labor characteristics, financial considerations, and population behavior.

Employment

Unemployment in New England is currently 3.7%, a significant drop since the post-recession level of 8.7%. New England’s job gain rate over the last year was 1.5%, compared to a national rate of 1.7%. Massachusetts and New Hampshire experienced the highest job growth in 2018, while Rhode Island’s and Maine’s employment numbers were virtually unchanged, and Vermont’s jobs shrank slightly.

Average wages throughout New England increased in the last year at an average rate of 2.6%. This increment was marginally lower than the national average of 4.7% but still positive for each of the region’s seven states. Wage growth in both Massachusetts and New Hampshire surpasses the national average.

New England, particularly the Cambridge area of Massachusetts, is seen as an excellent source of skilled labor. The technology industry has traditionally benefitted most from a wealth of well-educated workers. In recent years, major growth witnessed in the life sciences industries (including pharma and biotech) has made these sectors the strongest segments of New England’s economy.

Cost of Living

A downside to this regional employment growth is an elevation in living costs. Specifically in the Boston area, the cost of living increased by 2.5% in 2018. Housing represented the greatest portion of that increase: shelter costs rose by 4.7%. Market prices for natural gas and dairy products also grew sharply.

Recent interest rate increases have also hiked the cost of living in the New England area. The Federal Reserve increased its short-term lending rate by a quarter-point, to 2.5%, in December 2018. At its January 2019 meeting, the Federal Reserve suggested that rates would stay level for the coming year.

The current rate for a fixed 30-year mortgage in New England ranges from 4.40% to 4.50%, according to bankrate.com. This is slightly below the U.S. average of 4.54%. However, uncertainty about the near future of the American economy leads experts to conclude that residential mortgage rates will increase in 2019. Also, the recent federal government shut-down hampered consumers’ confidence. Economists expect the U.S. economy to slow in the coming months in response to tariffs’ damaging effects on some trade markets. Great Britain’s imminent exit from the European Union (the infamous Brexit) has also reduced investors’ expectations for 2019.

Consumption, Work, and Commuting

Lifestyle changes are affecting real estate demand. U.S. online retail shopping increased by nearly 13% between 2017 and 2018. Online purchases represented 9.8% of all retail sales at the end of 2018; this is more than 200% of what was attributed to online shopping in 2010.

Furthermore, labor models are rapidly changing. While unemployment continues to be low, the rate of new hires is also low. Statistics for the number of independent contractors and gig workers in the U.S. economy are scattered and inconsistent. But by many measures, non-employees are increasingly becoming a crucial part of the workforce. The most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) analyses suggest that some 7.5% of the U.S. labor force are independent contractors, and another 6.4% are on-call, temporary, or gig workers.

Unfortunately, the BLS has not standardized its collection methods for this segment of the labor force; the Federal Reserve estimates that as many as 75,000,000 Americans, or 46% of the workforce, work in ‘non-traditional’ arrangements. Independent contractors and gig workers often escape the burden of commuting. In New England, that burden is noteworthy: Boston ranked first in 2018 for hours lost and cost per driver, due to traffic congestion.

Trends’ Effects on Real Estate Markets

All the economic trends mentioned influence demand for New England real estate. Increases in mortgage rates and relatively high prices will likely slow single-family home sales. These same forces are further intensifying demand for residential rental property.

Congestion, high office rental rates, and constantly improving telecommunications are driving large employers out of city centers, increasing demand for suburban office spaces. The ongoing growth in technology and life science industries is escalating businesses’ need for campus office properties that include laboratories and storage spaces. The proliferation of independent contractors and remote workers is also heightening demand for co-working offices near residential and retail developments.

The growth of online retail commerce is causing substantial changes in the commercial real estate market. Demand for traditional bricks-and-mortar stores of all kinds is declining. Consumers expect ever faster delivery of retail goods and services; this trend has increased demand for dispersed distribution hubs to speed up last-mile delivery. Thus, opportunities abound for investors who are looking for the ‘next new thing.’
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The digital age has disrupted many traditional businesses. Ridesharing has upset the taxi business; online marketplaces have, to a large extent, replaced newspaper classified ads. Residential real estate markets are flexing to accommodate fast-growing short-term rental companies such as Airbnb and VRBO. Owner-occupied homes now have the potential for limited rentals; houses purchased for investment may have alternative rental opportunities. Well-informed and competent real estate appraisers account for this new rental model in their residential appraisals.

Is Short-Term Rental the Highest and Best Use?

The first criterion in establishing a property’s highest and best use is whether a use is permissible. States and cities in the U.S. are placing legal limitations on short-term rentals. Massachusetts now has a statute that explicitly addresses short-term rentals; Boston also recently enacted laws for such rentals. In addition, some homeowners’ associations and condominium projects regulate short-term rentals.

In Massachusetts, owners whose short-term rentals exceed 14 days in a year must pay a 5.7% room tax. All short-term rental properties must be state-registered, and all must have liability insurance. The Boston ordinance is even stricter: only owner-occupants may offer short-term rentals, and only one unit per residential property is allowed. Owners must provide contact information to both the city and tenants, and they must notify owners of adjoining properties when these property owners register for short-term rental.

Assuming short-term rental is permitted for a property, its appraiser must ensure that the property’s location is in an area that generates demand. The property should be easily accessible and have features attractive to regular renters.

Short-Term Rental Appraisals: Which Value Approach Is the Best?

The sales comparison approach assumes that comparable sale properties are similar to the subject. Therefore, the appraiser should confirm whether comparables are used for short-term rental. Afterward, these comparables must be adjusted to account for differences in potential rent income.

The income approach assumes that a property’s net income has a measurable relationship to its most probable sale price. But in Massachusetts, especially Boston, short-term rental alone may not be adequate to reflect a property’s worth. In that situation, short-term rental income might be considered complementary, not a primary value indicator.

If there appears to be adequate income to justify an income approach, the appraiser must be sure to account for vacancy, both between rentals and during low market seasons. Also, short-term rental will accrue extra expenses, such as for cleaning, advertising, and marketing.

Conclusion

Appraisers should consider short-term rental as a potential use for many single-family residences. Laws, ordinances, and legal use limitations must first be explored. For properties where short-term rental is allowed, subject property’s location, design, and features must be appropriate. In valuing those properties with their short-term rental included in highest and best use, appraisers must be careful in using the sales comparison approach to select comparable sales that have similar potential use. Adjustments for differences in use are critical since these likely figured in buyers’ choices. In the income approach, appraisers may find that capitalized income for houses with short-term rental potential still doesn’t equal value; in those cases, income may be a complement to value rather than a primary value indicator. In estimating short-term rental income, appraisers must account for vacancy and rental turnover and all expenses incurred to accommodate short-term renters.

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The appraisal process includes the income approach to estimate the value of a property that an investor would ideally purchase for its annual income. The income approach assumes a relationship between a property’s average net income and the price an average investor would pay for the property. The first step to defining that relationship is estimating the amount of net income that would accrue to a property in a typical operating year after all expenses to produce that income are deducted. The resulting estimate is shown in a stabilized or reconstructed operating statement for the subject property.

How Typical Expenses Are Identified

Expenses are normally described as ‘fixed’ or ‘variable.’ An appraiser’s first and most important source of expense data is the property’s most recent operating history; almost as important are past operating statements for the property. The appraiser asks the owner/property manager about any unusual expenses or expense variations from year to year. They then compare the subject property’s actual expenses with those for other properties. Since most market value definitions assume an everyday, well-informed buyer, the appraiser confirms that those characteristic expenses reflect the norm for similar properties and not just the seller’s management.

Comparable expense data can be difficult to find. In a competitive market, owners hesitate to declare the details of their properties’ operation publicly. An appraiser who has appraised many properties will have the actual expenses for those other subject properties; he or she can then use those properties as comparables as long as he or she doesn’t break his or her confidentiality obligations to other clients. Also, belonging to a professional appraisal organization, such as the Appraisal Institute, can give an appraiser access to comparable operating data from professional colleagues or member-only publications.

Professional management organizations, such as the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM) and the Building Owners and Managers Association, publish surveys of typical operating expenses by property type. These published valuations usually aggregate data from properties in specific regions. Surveys are useful as a practical evaluation for a specific property, but actual expense data are always an appraiser’s first choice.

Fixed Expenses

Fixed expenses are those that accrue to a property regardless of its occupancy. These usually include real estate taxes and property insurance. Tax data are often available from the local treasurer or assessor, who can also let an appraiser know if major changes in assessment or tax rates are imminent. The appraiser must confirm that only real estate taxes are used in net income analysis: personal property and income taxes don’t apply to real property. Similarly, property insurance costs should involve just the real estate, not any personal property.

Variable Expenses

Variable expenses typically fluctuate with a property’s level of occupancy. Higher occupancy results in higher expenses incurred (or incurrable) by an owner/a property manager. Some kinds of occupancy will also result in greater accumulation of expenditures; examples include electricity for a server farm or security for a medical building. Standard variable expenses include management charges, maintenance and repair, cleaning, parking and site maintenance, security, rubbish removal, and pest exterminating. Actual operating history is again the best source for estimating these costs, though the appraiser will verify that the subject property’s expenses aren’t outside the conventional rates for similar properties.

Appraisers usually include a reserve for replacement, or replacement allowance, as an additional expense in a stabilized income statement. A reserve for replacement is a calculated charge that accounts for periodic replacement of property elements that wear out faster than the building itself. These might include carpet, roofing, HVAC systems, tenant improvements, exterior painting, and landscaping.

Property owners mostly don’t include a reserve in their operating statements. Actual repair and capital improvement costs can provide the appraiser with a basis for developing a replacement reserve. In that case, an appraiser would be careful not to overestimate the reserve. Appraisers also use subscription services, such as the SwiftEstimator, to identify the usual lives and replacements of building components.

Putting it Together

Investors generally focus on properties’ income multipliers, direct capitalization rates, and yield rates. But an appraiser can apply these factors only after developing accurate and well-reasoned estimates of net income. Net income estimates are only valid if the appraiser carefully analyzes past, current, and typical expenses for a property. A property owner can help the appraiser by providing a complete operating history and by explaining any expense anomalies.

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It’s standard procedure for most commercial lenders to request all three approaches to value—sales comparison approach, income approach, and cost approach—be undertaken during an appraisal. Usually, there is a stipulation that an approach may be excluded from the valuation if such an approach is deemed dispensable. This omission can be a point of conflict between lenders and appraisers, as the necessity of one or more approaches is debatable in certain situations. This post attempts to clarify the instances where the cost approach is either relevant or extraneous to a property’s valuation. Being able to prudently determine the importance (or otherwise) of the cost approach to valuation increases efficiency and fosters understanding between lenders and appraisers.

What Is this Method all About

Per Investopedia, “The cost approach is a real estate valuation method that surmises that the price a buyer should pay for a piece of property should equal the cost to build an equivalent building.” Essentially, in the cost approach the market value of a property is equal to the cost of the underlying land plus the cost of new construction, minus depreciation. To assist with the cost approach, most appraisers turn to cost manuals, such as the Marshall & Swift Valuation Service, that provide pertinent information on building expenditures associated with different building types, locations, and dates of construction. The following section breaks down the ideal scenarios that require this approach to valuation in commercial appraisals.

When to Use the Cost Approach

The ideal stage to utilize the cost approach is when constructing or proposing a new property. Given that construction expenses associated with erecting a new building should be readily available to the appraiser, these costs are often the best indicator to determine a property’s value. While some buildings may be improved beyond market standards, generally, the most compelling reflection of the cost approach is when the actual price to construct a property is known. The over-improvement issue would likely be adjusted for in an associated sale comparison approach, which would then be reconciled with the cost approach to reach an appraiser’s value conclusion.

The valuation of special-use properties (such as churches, schools, libraries, or other non-income-producing buildings) usually requires the use of the cost approach. Since most of these buildings neither yield an income (and if they do, it’s often at non-market rates) nor frequently transact in some markets, the cost approach can be either the primary or the sole approach for valuation. Although calculating appropriate depreciation can be challenging in these instances, most cost manuals include reference charts to help appraisers determine the right amount of depreciation.

Often when an appraisal is ordered for insurance purposes, a cost-based valuation is required. An example of this is when an insurance company needs to know the exact amount to insure a building, which requires separating the underlying land value from the building’s worth. In this case, the cost method would be the most relevant approach to valuation.

The Cost Approach Is Not Always Relevant

For older properties, the cost approach is generally not as useful. While there are some exceptions, such as found in special-use properties, the high degree of depreciation in older buildings makes it difficult to accurately apply depreciation in the valuation. Considering this reality, buyers normally won’t consider this approach during their buying process, making it not only an unreliable approach to valuation, but also irrelevant in the market.

In some cases, the income approach and the sale comparison approach are enough to determine a property’s value without the use of a cost approach. This cost-approach exclusion tends to be especially true for income-generating properties. For example, unless it was very recently constructed, an appraisal of a multi-tenant retail building would likely exclude the cost approach. In this scenario, given the reliable data derived from the subject property’s income and expenses and the high probability that there are good supporting rent and capitalization rate comparisons in the market area, the income approach would provide the best indication of the subject’s value.

The second-best indication of the property’s value would then be determined by the sales comparison approach (also called the substitution method), again, assuming there are ample sales comparisons within the subject’s market. If there is an active market for the multi-tenant retail building mentioned above, and vacancy rates are relatively low, it is likely that there would be a large pool of buyers interested in purchasing the property. As with the case in older properties, a potential buyer for this multi-tenant retail building most likely wouldn’t consider the cost to construct a similar building in the area, unless the buyer had more specific needs. Their main concerns are the property’s income potential and the cost to acquire the property, compared to other similar properties in the area. Therefore, the cost approach would be irrelevant in the market in this situation and, thus, should be excluded from the appraisal.

Efficient Appraisals

Now that we’ve addressed some examples of when a cost approach is necessary, you’ll have a better understanding of when it’s proper to request a cost approach and when this valuation method is redundant. Identifying instances where the cost approach is not needed can ultimately increase an appraiser’s efficiency and speed up the appraisal process. The necessity of this approach should be discussed in your initial conversation with an appraiser when determining the appropriate scope of work.

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The Market Analysis section in an appraisal report contains precious information that directly influences the value of a property and also provides priceless insight into a myriad of data relating to the financial feasibility of a property. It is common for many prospective users of an appraisal report to ignore various sections of the report and focus solely on segments that indicate property value. The downside of this approach to valuations is that the reader, therefore, misses key insights into the subject market that can benefit the owner, buyer, seller, or lender.

Highest and Best Use Application

The impact of the marketability studies in the Highest and Best Use section is perhaps the most meaningful—highest and best use refers to the utilization of a real estate in a way that such property will yield the greatest economic benefit for the owner or operator of the property. These studies provide valuable information for the highest and best use decision. While it would be easier to read only the Highest and Best Use section of an appraisal, the hard data that support the financial feasibility element of the highest and best use conclusion is found in the market analysis. In the Market Analysis segment, you can expect to find the ‘what’ and ‘why’ of a property’s marketability and feasibility.

Typically, the best use is consistent with the usage of surrounding properties and complies with existing and emerging zoning policies. Also, the Market Analysis section provides the figures required to identify the use that could lead to a higher profit potential (relative to that derived from the existing use) and making purchase or finance offers that leverage this potential.

Business/Tenant/Occupant Insight

One of the more overlooked aspects within a commercial appraisal market analysis is a review of the primary business(es) or tenant(s) occupying a property. Beyond surface-level information, many reports will address a business’s history at the subject, as well as their competitive market and long-term potential at the site. Businesses, schools, churches and other special-use properties can have some of the more interesting and insightful analyses into their operations. Understanding not only the property, but the use and functionality for the current occupants help to provide a more holistic comprehension of the subject and make investment decisions that are guided by extensive research and objective statistics.

Local and National Economic Information in the Market Analysis

Being well informed on the inner workings of the market influencing subject value is always a good idea, regardless of the locality or economy. A well-rounded report serves to cover market trends and economic obsolescence of the location more thoroughly. Fortunately, nearly all Market Analysis sections will (to varying degrees) assess the local and national economic factors that are directly affecting both the subject property and the economy as a whole. The best reports will further include an array of compelling charts and graphs to pair with the data presented in the text. Experienced local appraisal firms strive to provide the most recent and accurate data on these topics; these companies can be reliable sources for important economic and market information, as well as assisting in interpreting the results generated.

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